NEW FROM FMEP
Israeli Settlements in Lebanon – a Movement Takes Shape (New Occupied Thoughts episode)
FMEP Fellow Ahmed Moor speaks with journalist Maya Rosen and analyst Natasha Soffer-Roth about the groups behind the nascent effort to establish Israeli settlements in Lebanon, the US-to-Israel pipeline of radical Zionists (such as Meir Kahane, Baruch Goldstein, and others), and the role that secular Israelis play in pursuing settlement policies.
Gaza’s Disappeared (New Occupied Thoughts episode)
FMEP Fellow Ahmed Moor speaks with Mahmoud Mushtaha, a journalist and researcher from Gaza, and Obada Shtaya, the co-founder and CEO of the West Bank-based Institute for Social and Economic Progress. Mahmoud recently published two articles that focus on the thousands of people still missing in Gaza, drawing in part from research that Obada’s institute conducted. Ahmed, Mahmoud, and Obada speak about the people who have been disappeared in Palestine and the social impact on survivors, and they discuss their backgrounds and experiences as Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza.
FMEP Legislative Round-Up May 6, 2026 (Lara Friedman 5/6/26)
- Bills, Resolutions; 2. Letters; 3. Hearings & Markups; 4. Selected Members on the Record; 5. Selected Media & Press releases/Statements
Settlement & Annexation Report: May 8, 2026 (Kristin McCarthy)
EAST JERUSALEM: More Displacement in Silwan; WEST BANK: Demolition Notices Raises Concern E-1 Settlement Construction is Nearing, Plans Advance for 643 New Units, Settlers Plot Return to Ganim Settlement, Spotlight on Agricultural Destruction Wrought by Settlements; STATE-BACKED SETTLER TERRORISM; BONUS READS
GLOBAL/REGION
CIA report on Iran missiles undercuts Netanyahu as war euphoria dissipates (Al Monitor 5/8/26)
“A confidential CIA assessment delivered to US policymakers this week concludes that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for three to four months and retains most of its ballistic missile arsenal, findings that have unsettled Israeli officials and complicated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political and strategic messaging on the war with Iran, according to Israeli diplomatic sources. The analysis, first reported by The Washington Post, estimates that Tehran still holds roughly 70% of its prewar ballistic missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers despite weeks of Israeli and US strikes. It also assesses that Iran has restored access to much of its underground storage network, and in some cases repaired or completed missiles that were nearly finished when the war began.”
Trump shelved ‘Project Freedom’ after Saudis refused use of bases and airspace (The Guardian 5/7/26)
“A refusal by Saudi Arabia to allow the US to use its bases and airspace to provide a military escort for oil tankers passing through the strait of Hormuz lay behind Donald Trump’s decision to shelve the plan days after it had been launched…Saudi Arabia refused to drop its objections despite a personal call between the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and Trump, NBC reported. The confrontation – not denied by Riyadh – underlines Saudi Arabia’s desire for a permanent end to the damaging US-Israel war on Iran on almost any terms, in contrast to its more assertive Gulf neighbour, the United Arab Emirates.” See also US awaiting response from Iran over proposals for ceasefire deal, says Rubio (The Guardian 5/8/26);
Singled Out by Iran, U.A.E. Doubles Down on U.S. and Israeli Ties (NYT 5/8/26)
“The Emirates has faced more Iranian drone and missile strikes than any other country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, including some as recently as Friday morning. The call with Mr. Netanyahu was one of many signs that, in the face of Iran’s attacks, the Emirati government has doubled down on its alliances with Israel and the United States. That remains the case even as President Trump and other American officials have appeared to downplay the attacks this week on the Emirates in the midst of a cease-fire…The depth of Iran’s ire has come as a shock to many in the Emirates. While the country hosts a major American air base, it is not a party to the conflict and has longstanding cultural and economic ties to Iran, hosting hundreds of thousands of Iranians. Before the war, it was one of Iran’s largest trading partners. As Iranian projectiles have battered Emirati energy facilities, airports and hotels — killing at least 10 civilians, all foreign nationals, and damaging the nation’s reputation as a safe haven — that shock has turned into fury. Some analysts said it was the most dangerous threat the country had faced since its founding.” See also As Stockpiles Fall, U.S. Sells More Missiles Worth $17 Billion to Gulf Nations (NYT 5/7/26); US strikes Iran tankers as UAE reports fresh missile, drone attacks (Al Monitor 5/8/26);
Lebanon (Drop Site 5/8/26)
“More than 100 people were killed or wounded across Lebanon on Thursday as Israeli forces intensified attacks nationwide, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, which said 32 people were killed and 74 wounded in the past 24 hours.” See also U.S. State Dept: U.S. will facilitate two days of ‘intensive talks’ between Israel-Lebanon governments on May 14, 15 (Haaretz 5/8/26); Hezbollah fires rockets at Haifa area; drones wound 2 troops in north Israel, 1 in Lebanon (TOI 5/8/26);
Israel strikes Beirut in breach of Lebanon ceasefire (Al Monitor 5/6/26)
“An Israeli airstrike struck Beirut’s southern suburbs on Wednesday, with Israel saying it targeted a Hezbollah commander, marking the first attack on the Lebanese capital since a ceasefire was brokered in mid-April…According to initial reports in Lebanese media, the strike targeted the Haret Hreik area of Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahiyeh. The Israeli military did not appear to give any advance evacuation warning ahead of the strike. Israel has continued to carry out strikes in southern Lebanon, but it had not targeted Beirut since the ceasefire took effect. Hezbollah has also continued to launch attacks on Israel and Israeli positions in southern Lebanon, including as recently as Wednesday morning, when the group launched a drone that exploded near the border.”
Several Venice Biennale pavilions shut in protest over inclusion of Israel (Guardian 5/8/26)
A strike called in protest over the inclusion of Israel at the 2026 Venice Biennale meant several pavilions closed on the last day of the preview…The Belgian, Dutch, Austrian, Japanese, Macedonian and Korean pavilions were closed for the day. The British, Spanish, French, Egyptian, Finnish and Luxembourg entries were either closed and then reopened, or opened and expected to close early…Other artists taking part in the main show (called In Minor Keys) supported the strike by adding references to Palestine to their work.” See also Nobel laureate J.M. Coetzee withdraws from Jerusalem Writers’ Festival over Gaza crisis (The Independent 5/1/26); Palestinian photographer who captured ‘devastation and starvation in Gaza’ wins Pulitzer (TOI 5/5/26); Palestinian ambassador protests to Foreign Office over ’erasure’ by British Museum (The Guardian 5/6/26); Palestine and the UK elections: What early wins and losses suggest (The New Arab 5/8/26);
GAZA
UAE sends Board of Peace $100 million for training of new Gaza police force — officials (TOI 5/8/26)
“The United Arab Emirates transferred $100 million to the Board of Peace in recent days to fund a contract for the training of a new Palestinian police force for Gaza, a US official and a Middle Eastern diplomat told The Times of Israel this week. The transfer is the largest that the Board of Peace has received to date, after announcing $17 billion in pledges at a donor conference hosted by US President Donald Trump in February.”
Gaza (Drop Site 5/7/26)
“Over the last 24 hours, nine Palestinians were killed—six in new attacks and three from wounds sustained in earlier attacks—and 39 were injured across Gaza. The total recorded death toll since October 7, 2023 has risen to 72,628 killed, with 172,520 injured. Since October 11, the first full day of the so-called ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 846 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded 2,418, while 769 bodies have been recovered from under the rubble, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.” See also Israel Kills Son of Hamas Leader Khalil al-Hayya as it Pushes Maximalist Demands in Gaza Talks (Drop Site 5/7/26); Israeli forces kill three in Gaza despite ceasefire, Hamas slams ‘repetition of genocide’ (The New Arab 5/8/26)
Rights Group Seeks Doctor for Hunger-striking Gaza Flotilla Detainee in Israel (Haaretz 5/8/26)
“Israeli rights group Adalah on Friday asked the Israel Prison Service to allow a doctor to visit Saif Abu Keshek, one of two Gaza flotilla activists detained in Israel, saying he has been on a hunger strike for more than a week and stopped drinking water amid allegations of threats and mistreatment during interrogation. Abu Keshek, a Spanish-Swedish citizen of Palestinian origin, and Brazilian activist Thiago Ávila are being held in isolation after their detention was extended through Sunday; both were arrested last week during a naval operation in international waters and face suspicion of aiding an enemy during wartime…The case has drawn diplomatic attention, with the governments of Spain and Italy, along with international rights groups, calling for the activists’ release. The two men were among 172 activists detained during a naval interception of a flotilla last week in international waters near Greece; while the rest were later released in Greece, Abu Keshek and Ávila were brought to Israel and remain in custody on suspicion of aiding an enemy during wartime.” See also British Gaza flotilla activists say they needed hospital care after Israeli forces’ abuse (The Guardian 5/4/26); Spain demands release of Gaza flotilla activists ‘held illegally’ by Israel (The Guardian 5/3/26); Illegal Siege, Brutal Abuse: Our Detention and Assault at the Hands of Israeli Prison Guards (Noa Avishag Schnall and Anna Liedtke//Drop Site 5/2/26)
RIVER TO THE SEA
Israeli army chief says West Bank troops ‘killing like we haven’t killed since 1967’ (The Guardian 5/5/26)
“The Israeli army chief in the West Bank has said his troops were “killing like we haven’t killed since 1967”, including fatally shooting Palestinian stone-throwers, according to an Israeli report of his comments. The remarks by Maj Gen Avi Bluth, head of the army’s central command, were made in a recent closed forum but were leaked to Israel’s Haaretz newspaper…He said they had shot 42 Palestinian stone-throwers on West Bank roads last year, insisting that such acts amounted to terrorism. Bluth said the army did not shoot Jewish settler militants for doing the same thing, noting that on one occasion when a settler throwing stones at motorists had been wounded by army gunfire, there was a public “ruckus”…Bluth said another way he had loosened legal constraints on Israeli soldiers in the West Bank was to allow the maiming of Palestinians caught trying to cross the separation barrier into Israel in search of work.” See also IDF Reservist Shoots at Palestinian Homes in West Bank, Soldiers Say He Was Drunk (Haaretz 5/2/26); After a Palestinian Home Is Torched, Settlers Return Under IDF Watch (Haaretz 5/2/26);
With World Distracted by War, Extremist Settlers Intensify Attacks in West Bank (NYT 5/4/26)
“When Israeli settlers attacked his West Bank village, Moatasem Odeh saw his son Amir, 28, fatally shot. Then he was stabbed repeatedly and beaten unconscious. The attack in Qusra, on March 14, was one of many in a wave of brutal violence in the West Bank over the past two months…With the world’s attention focused on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and its proxies, extremist settlers acting with seeming impunity have intensified their attacks on Palestinians across the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Their campaign of violence and intimidation is emptying out entire villages and leaving countless Palestinians fearing what each nightfall might bring.” See also Israel’s war on the West Bank comes for Palestinian greenhouses (Meron Rapoport//+972 Magazine 5/7/26); ‘
Boy, 14, shot dead by Israeli settlers in West Bank amid escalation in violence (NBC 5/2/26)
“Aws al-Nasaan, 14, was gunned down in broad daylight last week in the small Palestinian village of Al-Mughayyir, in the occupied West Bank. His death comes amid a dramatic escalation in settler violence, alongside a push to expand Israel’s control over the West Bank through new laws, settlement expansions and security crackdowns limiting Palestinians’ freedom. According to data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Israeli settlers and forces have killed at least 42 Palestinians so far this year. The attack, caught on video from multiple angles, took place just after noon on Tuesday, April 21. Video obtained by NBC News shows a bearded man in an Israeli military uniform firing down the hill toward the school. He crouches to get a better angle and keeps shooting…“They ran out of the gates trying to escape,” the school’s principal Bassem Abu Assaf said, pointing out the bullet holes still visible in the stone wall last week. “The shooting was crazy, just crazy, nonstop shooting.”’ See also Go inside, he will kill you’: Israeli militants step up West Bank school attacks (The Guardian 5/2/26);
Palestinians out, foreign workers in: How Israel is remaking its labor force (Charlotte Ritz-Jack & Dana Mills//+972 Magazine 5/6/26)
“For decades, employment in low-wage sectors inside Israel — particularly construction, agriculture, and other forms of manual labor — has been a cornerstone of Palestinian livelihoods in the occupied territories, where Israel’s stifling of the economy keeps salaries low and unemployment high. Before October 7, 2023, such workers injected an estimated $380 million per month into local markets. In some towns in the West Bank, more than 90 percent of men depended on jobs inside Israel. Today, these opportunities have all but vanished. After October 7, over 200,000 Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza — including 150,000 permit holders from the West Bank, an estimated 50,000 working without permits, and 18,500 from Gaza — were barred from entering Israel, ostensibly due to “security concerns.” In effect, the war on Gaza has provided the Israeli state with the impetus to significantly scale back its long-standing reliance on Palestinian labor, marking a decisive shift in the decades-old balance between the ideological imperative to exclude Palestinian workers and their essential role in Israeli economic development.” See also Israel’s Financial Chokehold on the Palestinians Is the Twin of Settler Terrorism (Amira Hass//Haaretz 5/7/26)
Without Access to Palestinian Detainees: Israel to Allow Red Cross Prison Visits for First Time Since Oct. 7 Attack (Haaretz 5/8/26)
“Israel told its Supreme Court for the first time since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023 that it would allow the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit prisons holding Palestinian security detainees, though the organization would still be barred from meeting prisoners individually, according to a court filing submitted Thursday…Israel halted Red Cross prison visits and stopped transferring information about Palestinian detainees on the first day of the war…The conditions Palestinian security prisoners are held in have significantly worsened under Itamar Ben-Gvir’s tenure as National Security Minister…In January, the Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem published a report detailing alleged abuses in Israeli security prisons, citing testimonies of violence by prison guards, soldiers and Shin Bet personnel, including sexual violence, starvation, mistreatment, harsh living conditions and the denial of medical care. The report, which is based on interviews with released prisoners, includes testimony from four former inmates describing “a grave pattern of sexual violence” by prison guards and soldiers, that included “forces stripping, beatings to the genitals that caused severe injuries, setting dogs on prisoners and forced anal penetration with various objects.”’
Leaked Video of Arab Lawyer’s Violent Arrest Contradicts Israel Police Account (Haaretz 5/8/26)
“Leaked body-camera footage from officers involved in the arrest of an Arab Israeli Southern District prosecutor appears to show him not resisting arrest and being struck by at least one officer during a Be’er Sheva apartment raid, contradicting police claims that he and his relatives assaulted officers. The prosecutor was hospitalized and underwent surgery for a broken nose and serious injuries to his eye and kidneys following the incident.” See also Police said to beat, break nose, arrest a state prosecutor, who is Arab, over noise complaint (TOI 5/8/26);
Ex-US spy for Israel calls for Gaza ethnic cleansing as he seeks Knesset seat (The Guardian 5/6/26)
“Jonathan Pollard, a former US navy intelligence analyst jailed for 30 years for spying for Israel, has said he will stand for election to the Knesset this year on a platform of ethnic cleansing. Speaking to Channel 13 television, Pollard said: “I personally prefer the forcible removal of all current residents of Gaza, and the annexation of Gaza and its repopulation by us.”’ See also Sara Netanyahu’s Notorious Corruption (Lisa Goldman//New Lines Magazine 5/8/26)
U.S. SCENE
How the Fight Over Israel Is Playing Out Inside MAGA (NYT 5/6/26)
“Rarely is foreign policy a major political issue in a midterm election year. But the war in Iran has helped turn the U.S. relationship with Israel into a marquee topic among Republicans, pushing allies of President Trump like Ms. Loomer to escalate their attacks on conservative critics of the relationship and creating new fault lines on America’s far right.”
A Liberal Zionist Lobby Faces an Anti-Israel Moment (Josh Nathan-Kazis//Jewish Currents 5/5/26)
“It’s true that J Street’s policies have shifted: The group now says the US should phase out all military aid to Israel, though they maintain that Israel should still be able to buy notionally defensive weapons like Iron Dome. But that shift comes amid a far more radical shift in political opinion on Israel among Democratic voters at large. According to the Pew Research Center, 80% of Democrats now report a negative view of Israel, and a March NBC News poll found that 67% of Democrats say they sympathize more with the Palestinians than the Israelis, compared to 18% in 2013. That’s a huge swing, and it’s soon likely to reshape the Democratic caucus in Washington. As Jewish Currents has reported, leading candidates in Democratic primaries in a number of House races, and at least one Senate race, are now pushing for the US to stop selling any arms to Israel at all, including missile interceptors, a position previously held in Congress only by Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. J Street has long pitched itself as a safe alternative to AIPAC for Democrats looking for a pro-Israel policy that was more suitable to their liberal base. But in the aftermath of the assault on Gaza, which experts have termed a genocide, Democratic voters have moved much faster than J Street, and it’s not clear how the group will fit into the reshaped Democratic party.”
Rutgers graduation speaker canceled for pro-Palestinian posts says decision sends ‘dangerous’ message (The Guardian 5/6/26)
“Rutgers University abruptly rescinded its invitation to a prominent alum who was slated to deliver a graduation speech next week after some students complained about social media posts he had published about Palestine. Rami Elghandour – a tech entrepreneur, graduate of Rutgers’ School of Engineering, and executive producer of the Oscar-nominated film The Voice of Hind Rajab – was set to deliver a graduation address at the school’s campus in New Brunswick, New Jersey on 15 May. But the school’s dean, Alberto Cuitiño, called Elghandour last week and told him he was cancelling the speech because of students’ complaints, though he declined to say how many students and what posts they had complained about. The dean, Elghandour said, broadly described the posts as “opposed to their beliefs”.”
Boulder firebomber sentenced to 2,000-plus years in prison (Denver Gazette 5/7/26)
“The man accused of throwing Molotov cocktails into a crowd of pro-Israel marchers in Boulder that killed a woman and injured 29 others pleaded guilty Thursday to more than 100 state charges and was sentenced to life in prison, plus another 2,000 years in jail.”
Prominent Christian Zionist Group Is Lobbying U.S. Lawmakers on Israel—Without Revealing It’s Funded by Israel (Drop Site 5/5/26)
“This week, Eagles’ Wings is spearheading a push on Capitol Hill against Israel’s public relations crisis. They don’t disclose their $700,000 Israeli check.”
Synagogue Protesters Would Get Jail Time Under California Bill (Alex Kane//Jewish Currents 5/7/26)
“The proposal is yet another effort by legislatures and Jewish establishment groups to crack down on protests at US synagogue events marketing land in West Bank settlements.” See also Mamdani Condemns NYC Expo Promoting Property Sales in Israeli West Bank Settlements (The Intercept 5/5/26);
Palestinian-American Developer Asks U.S. Judge to Dismiss Lawsuit Alleging He Aided Hamas (Haaretz 5/8/26)
“A prominent Palestinian-American developer asked a U.S. judge on Friday to throw out a lawsuit accusing him of supporting Hamas through his Gaza projects, arguing it equates participating in Gaza’s economy with terrorism. Bashar Masri, who built luxury hotels in Gaza and the Palestinians’ first planned city in the West Bank, was sued last year by U.S. families of victims of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks who alleged his Gaza properties concealed tunnels the militant group used to stage its assault.”
PERSPECTIVES//LONG READS
America Never Had the Arab World: The Ruins of the Liberal International Order (Dana El Kurd//Arab Center DC 5/4/26)
“The Arab Opinion Index—the largest longitudinal public opinion survey in the Arab world, conducted by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) across 15 countries since 2011—shows a steady trajectory of deepening public disillusionment with the United States. The share of Arab citizens who identify the United States as the greatest threat to the Arab nation has hovered between 21 and 29 percent across each of the nine survey rounds conducted since 2011—second only to Israel. The proportion of respondents rejecting the claim that the United States protects human rights rose from 49 percent in 2014 to 55 percent in the most recent survey. Seventy-six percent view US policy toward Palestine negatively. ACRPS polling reveals that America’s poor standing in Arab public opinion predates the war in Gaza by many years. Arab public opinion is not simply expressing a backlash against the Gaza genocide, the Iran war, or even the Trump administration. Instead, Arab perceptions of Washington’s role in the region reflect a much deeper crisis in the US-led international order.”
Annexation Through Law: Land Registration and Palestinian Dispossession in the West Bank (Alaa Mahajna//Arab Center DC 5/7/26)
“The Israeli government’s February 2026 decisions allow any land to which Palestinians cannot prove their ownership to be immediately registered as state-owned land, which Israelis and Jews overseas are then entitled to lease and build upon. Taken together, these measures constitute one of the most consequential shifts in Israel’s declared policies in the West Bank since the beginning of the occupation…Although Israel has presented them as simply technical or administrative reforms, the February 2026 decisions form part of its strategy to consolidate Israeli control. In fact, they facilitate de facto annexation—the gradual integration of the West Bank into Israel’s legal and institutional framework without formal declaration. The land registration plan is not merely an administrative reform, but a political mechanism through which Israel will assert sovereignty over Area C…Crucially, land registration does more than regulate ownership: it confers formal legal title that is difficult to challenge or reverse, thereby embedding control within a durable legal framework. In this sense, it transforms territorial control into a permanent legal reality, making it a central mechanism through which annexation can be realized in practice. Thus, the policy does not merely expand Israeli control over land—it redefines property relations in ways that preempt future negotiations. International institutions, including the United Nations, call the measures unlawful. By introducing them, Israel is effectively replacing the temporary regime of occupation with an increasingly permanent structure of control.”
Israel’s National Security Minister Celebrated His Birthday With a Noose Cake. I Wish I Could Say I Was Surprised (Diana Buttu//Zeteo 5/7/26)
“For Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, his birthday is also a day of love – but love for death. To mark his 50th birthday, his wife brought him a cake with his favorite symbol on it – a noose. The inscription read, “Congratulations to Minister Ben-Gvir. Sometimes dreams come true.” The cake, of course, is referring to the recent Knesset passing of the racist Death Penalty Law, which mandates the execution of some Palestinian prisoners…It is easy to dismiss Ben-Gvir as a right-wing fascist. It is easy to look at Netanyahu and say that he is the problem today in Israel. This has become a convenient trend among many: to focus solely on Israel’s outspoken ministers and ignore the rest of society. But it isn’t just Ben-Gvir and his supporters who are championing the death penalty law, and it isn’t just Ben-Gvir who is so violently anti-Palestinian. It’s much of Israeli society, as evidenced by the support for the Death Penalty Law and the recent racist videos and statements that many of Israel’s politicians have put out.”
Something is shifting in Israel’s peace camp (Meron Rapoport//+972 Magazine 5/8/26)
“At the ‘People’s Peace Summit’ in Tel Aviv, Israel’s embattled left showed signs of abandoning old formulas and embracing a politics of resistance…This represents a shift in how the Israeli “peace camp” perceives itself. It is now a camp of resistance. This resistance is directed not only against “settler terror,” but also the army leadership and the soldiers who stand aside — and, in many cases, actively assist — as settler militias attack Palestinian communities. For Israel’s peace camp, the army has long been beyond criticism. The occupation was presented as a kind of traffic accident, and the settlers as a kind of foreign body that had taken over the state and steered it off its proper course. Here, however, while there was still no explicit or widespread call for military refusal, the army was presented as an immoral actor.”
The Israeli left is speaking only to itself (Samah Watad//+972 Magazine 5/8/26)
“Stepping into the third annual “People’s Peace Summit” as a Palestinian journalist was uncomfortable…More than 80 civil society organizations had spent months preparing the conference, hoping it could stand as proof that another future is possible. But there was an unspoken reluctance to confront the question of whether their politics retain any traction, in what is shaping up to be a decisive election year. Even as someone who tends to recognize hope wherever it exists, however faintly, I find myself increasingly skeptical — not of the sincerity of these activists, but of their ability to do more than theorize, to move beyond moral conviction and toward political influence.”
Iran war marks the end of American primacy as we know it (Trita Parsi//Responsible Statecraft 5/8/26)
“A strategy built on escalation dominance falters when escalation itself becomes too risky to use. One that relies on decisive victories breaks down when adversaries can consistently impose stalemate. What emerges instead is a different kind of international order — one not defined by dominance, but by mutual denial. In this world, great powers cannot easily impose their will, and smaller states can resist them at tolerable cost. The result is not chaos, but constraint. The most likely outcome of the current US-Iran stand-off is neither a deal nor a return to war, but a prolonged, uneasy equilibrium. That, too, is a sign of the times. The United States may walk away from negotiations, but it is unlikely to reenter a full-scale war. Not because it lacks the capability — but because it lacks the strategic freedom to use it. For states who have opted to depend on American protection, this should be a wake-up call. This does not mean alliances will collapse. But it does mean they will change. Allies will hedge more, diversify their security relationships, and place greater emphasis on regional balances of power rather than reliance on a single guarantor.”
Tuba was designed to be our refuge – now we risk displacement from there too (Ahmed Jundeya//Vashti & Humans of Masfer Yatta 5/6/26)
“With the outbreak of the war in 2023, attacks on our village have escalated to unprecedented levels. Crops and vehicles have been burned, and the contents of homes have been destroyed, all without any pretence of protection from the state. The latest of these attacks occurred on 11 April 2026, when settlers stormed the village and stole five sheep after assaulting residents. Despite all the displacement, demolitions, and ongoing attacks that our family has endured, Khirbet al-Tuba remains a testament to a story of unwavering resilience. For us, the land is not merely a place to live; it is our identity and our very existence, ingrained in us as our caves are ingrained in the mountainside. Despite all the challenges, we remain steadfast in our determination to stay, whatever the cost.”
Despite global outrage, Israel is still blockading our children’s education (Tariq Hathaleen//+972 Magazine 5/5/26)
“It’s been three weeks since settlers fenced off my students’ path to school, trying to show that Umm Al-Khair has no future. We refuse to let them win.”